Sun 26 Jul · Gabba · 1:10pm AEST
Back in action. The site was on the bench through R17-R19 while the workbook cadence slipped, but the season kept moving. Fremantle stayed clear on top at 16-2 after their record 14-game winning streak was snapped by GWS at Manuka (109-88 in R17), then bounced back to belt Sydney 111-73 at Optus in the R18 top-two clash, then held off Port 103-75 in R19. Sydney dropped to second (13-5). Brisbane belted Essendon 149-59 in R18 - the Bombers now 2-16 and eliminated with Richmond.
Round 20 is a full nine-game round, no byes. The model is Overs-heavy again - five of nine totals flagged. Melbourne vs Geelong Over 176.5 at the MCG Friday night is the standout at 28.4% edge (model 199.3). Fremantle -43.5 vs West Coast in the Western Derby is the biggest spread edge at 22.0% (model has Freo by 64). GWS vs Sydney Over 184.0 at ENGIE in the Sydney Derby third at 14.9%.
North vs St Kilda Over 175.5 fourth at 13.2%. Port Adelaide +38.5 at the Gabba runs 12.0% edge - Lions are 12-6 but Port always shows up in a Sunday Gabba trip. Track record picks up fresh from R20 - the R17-R19 window was not tipped.
Our highest-confidence plays for Round 20, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value. Nine games this round, no byes.
Melbourne vs Geelong
MCG Friday 7:40pm. Sixth-placed Dees (12-6, W3) host ninth-placed Cats (10-8, W1) with both sides sitting outside the top four but still with a real path in. Dees off 92-76 over North and 111-65 over Richmond. Cats off 102-75 over St Kilda. Model has Geelong +14.4 with a 11.1% spread edge. The total is the standout: Over 176.5 at 28.4%.
Full Analysis →
Melbourne / Geelong Over 176.5
28.4% edge - the biggest total edge of R20. Model total 199.3 vs market 176.5, an 18.4-point gap. Both sides averaging over 90 points a game. Cats are off a 102-point outing, Dees off a 111-point outing. The MCG in July has hosted plenty of 90+ side scores.
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 20. Nine matches across four days, no byes. The whole competition is playing. The model has crunched form, disposals, contested possessions, scoring efficiency, and 50+ other variables.
28.4% edge. Model total 199.3 vs market 176.5 at the MCG Friday night. Both sides scoring 100+ regularly - Melbourne coming off 111-65 over Richmond then 92-76 over North, Cats off 102-75 over St Kilda.
Western Derby at Optus Friday 6:10pm AWST. Model has Fremantle by 64 against a market line of -43.5 - a 22.0% spread edge on the Dockers. West Coast (4-14) still crash-testing next-year selections.
Dockers clear on top after R19 with 64 points. Sydney 52 in second. Hawthorn (12-5-1, 50) and Brisbane (12-6, 48) locked in the top four. Adelaide, Melbourne and Bulldogs all on 44-48 points fighting for spots 5-7.
Sydney Derby at ENGIE Saturday 4:35pm. Over 184.0 at 14.9% edge - model total 195.0. Giants coming off 86-73 over Geelong and 109-88 over Fremantle, Swans off a shock loss to Adelaide.
After Round 19 - Updated 22 July 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle
|
18 | 16 | 2 | 64 | 142.0% | WWWLW |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
18 | 13 | 5 | 52 | 128.3% | WWLWL |
| 3 |
Hawthorn
|
18 | 12 | 5-1 | 50 | 118.4% | WLWWW |
| 4 |
Brisbane
|
18 | 12 | 6 | 48 | 117.8% | WLWWW |
| 5 |
Adelaide
|
18 | 12 | 6 | 48 | 117.2% | LWWWW |
| 6 |
Melbourne
|
18 | 12 | 6 | 48 | 109.6% | LWWWW |
| 7 |
W. Bulldogs
|
18 | 11 | 7 | 44 | 93.2% | LWWWL |
| 8 |
Collingwood
|
18 | 10 | 7-1 | 42 | 105.6% | DLWWW |
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23-26 July 2026
Top contenders - updated 22 July 2026 (post-R19).
R17-R19 played out with Fremantle still clear on top after a 14-game winning streak was finally snapped by GWS at Manuka (109-88). Freo bounced back to belt Sydney 111-73 in the top-two clash at Optus in R18, then held off Port Adelaide 103-75 in R19. Sydney dropped to second (13-5). Hawthorn (12-5-1) and Brisbane (12-6) are jostling for third and fourth. Adelaide, Melbourne, Bulldogs and Collingwood fill out the top 8 on 42-48 points. Essendon and Richmond both sit at 2-16 - officially eliminated from finals contention. Carlton have won 8 straight under Josh Fraser and are back to 8-10. Track record catches up here at R20 - the R17-R19 window was not tipped.
