Geelong v Adelaide Over 176.5
Model Total
206.1
Edge
34.4%
Highest edge of the round
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AFL Betting 2026
Expert analysis, live odds, round-by-round tips and proven strategies to sharpen every bet this AFL season.
Round 3 — Top Picks
This Week's Best Bets
Our 5 highest-confidence plays for Round 3, ranked by model edge. Click any row for the full statistical breakdown.
1
Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows
Model: 206.1 total vs 176.5 line — Cats 4-0 in last 4 H2H
Over 176.5
34.4%
View Tip →
2
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne
Model picks Bombers to win by 10.7 — market has them as underdogs
Essendon +12.5
24.6%
View Tip →
3
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons
Model total 186.2 vs market 170.5 — high-scoring contest predicted
Over 170.5
20.1%
View Tip →
4
Fremantle Dockers vs Richmond Tigers
Dockers 3-1 in last 4, avg margin +37.8 — Josh Treacy 15 goals in 3 H2H
Over 168.5
15.9%
View Tip →
5
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
Port 3-0 vs Eagles, avg 38.7 margin — model predicts another blowout
Port -28.5
11.1%
View Tip →
Powered by Data
Round 3 Model Insights
Our statistical model's top value plays for this round.
6 of 7 games projected to go Over by our model this round
Essendon +12.5
Model Margin
10.7
Edge
24.6%
Model disagrees with market
Carlton v Melbourne Over 170.5
Model Total
186.2
Edge
20.1%
High-scoring affair predicted
Port Adelaide -28.5
Model Margin
38.3
Edge
11.1%
Model predicts blowout
18
Teams
Rd 3
Current Round
3-0
Suns Lead
$5.00
Lions Fav
Live Ladder
2026 AFL Ladder — Top 8
After Round 2 — Updated March 26, 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gold Coast Suns |
3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 191.0 | WWW |
| 2 |  Western Bulldogs |
3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 137.2 | WWW |
| 3 |  Sydney Swans |
3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 139.5 | WWL |
| 4 |  Hawthorn Hawks |
3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 118.1 | LWW |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers |
2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 121.1 | LW |
| 6 | North Melbourne |
2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 116.3 | WL |
| 7 | Port Adelaide |
2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 109.3 | LW |
| 8 | Adelaide Crows |
2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 104.6 | WL |
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Round 3
Fixtures & Odds
March 26 – 29, 2026
Geelong Cats
1-1 (14th)
Thu 26 Mar
$1.20
$4.60
Adelaide Crows
1-1 (8th)
1-1 (8th)
GWS Giants
1-2 (13th)
Fri 27 Mar
$2.90
$1.42
Collingwood 
1-1 (9th)
1-1 (9th)
Brisbane Lions
0-2 (16th)
Sat 28 Mar
$1.52
$2.55
St Kilda 
1-2 (10th)
1-2 (10th)
Richmond
0-2 (17th)
Sat 28 Mar
$10.00
$1.05
Fremantle
1-1 (5th)
1-1 (5th)
North Melbourne
1-1 (6th)
Sat 28 Mar
$1.45
$2.75
Essendon
0-2 (18th)
0-2 (18th)
Sydney Swans
2-1 (3rd)
Sun 29 Mar
TBA
Western Bulldogs
3-0 (2nd)
3-0 (2nd)
Carlton
1-1 (15th)
Sun 29 Mar
TBA
Melbourne
1-1 (11th)
1-1 (11th)
Hawthorn
2-1 (4th)
Sun 29 Mar
TBA
Gold Coast Suns
3-0 (1st)
3-0 (1st)
West Coast
1-1 (12th)
Sun 29 Mar
TBA
Port Adelaide
1-1 (7th)
1-1 (7th)
Futures Market
2026 Premiership Odds
Top 8 contenders — pre-season market prices.
Brisbane Lions
$5.00
Gold Coast Suns
$9.00
Hawthorn Hawks
$9.00
Geelong Cats
$10.00
Sydney Swans
$10.00
Adelaide Crows
$13.00
Fremantle Dockers
$15.00
Western Bulldogs
$15.00