GWS vs Brisbane
Sun 24 May · ENGIE Stadium · 12:30pm AEST
Round 10 is done. Geelong belted Brisbane by 41 at the Gabba, Adelaide hammered North by 68 at Adelaide Oval, and Melbourne smashed Hawthorn by 39 at the MCG. Sydney held off Collingwood by 6 at the SCG, the Saints belted Richmond by 36, and Fremantle put 104 on Essendon at Marvel. Sydney (9-1) and Fremantle (9-1) are clear at the top - Sydney leads on percentage at 152.2%.
Round 11 opens Thursday at UTAS Stadium in Launceston: Hawthorn host Adelaide with the model's standout play of the week - Over 158.5 at a 37.9% edge. After the teamlists drop the market shortened from 165.0 to 158.5, widening the gap to model total 188.6 - a 30.1-point edge, the sharpest Over of the 2026 season.
Six Overs are flagged: Richmond/Essendon 173.5 (24.9% edge), North/Gold Coast 182.5 (24.8%), Bulldogs/Melbourne 189.5 (23.4%), Geelong/Sydney 189.5 (15.6%), and GWS/Brisbane 188.5 (11.7%). On the spread, Collingwood -43.5 against the Eagles is the biggest at 13.5%, with Bulldogs +6.5 against Melbourne and Port -9.0 against Carlton rounding out the value plays.
This Week's Best Bets
Our 5 highest-confidence plays for Round 11, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value.
Geelong vs Sydney
Top of the ladder (Sydney 9-1) on the road against the form-Cats (Geelong 7-3 with a 41-point belting of the Lions last week). Model has Sydney by 1.1 - the market has Sydney -10.5. That gives Sydney +10.5 a 10.5% edge at GMHBA Saturday afternoon.
Full Analysis →
Hawthorn / Adelaide Over 158.5
Biggest edge of Round 11 at 37.9%. Model total 188.6 vs a market line that has shortened to 158.5 - a 30.1-point gap. Both sides averaged 90+ in their last games and UTAS Stadium has trended Over.
Model Edge
Best Price
Round 11 Model Insights
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 11. The model has crunched form, disposals, contested possessions, scoring efficiency, and 50+ other variables across all nine matches.
32.7% edge. Model total 188.6 vs market line 165.0. A 23.6-point gap - the sharpest play of the round.
MCG. Hawks come off a 39-point loss to Melbourne. Adelaide stormed Round 11 with a 68-point belting of North.
Both at 9-1 after R10. Sydney leads on percentage (152.2 vs 134.9). Geelong vs Sydney is the marquee Saturday game.
12.4% spread edge. Model has Collingwood winning by 55.5, market only -44.5 at the MCG Saturday twilight.
2026 AFL Ladder - Top 8
After Round 11 - Updated 11 May 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sydney
|
10 | 9 | 1 | 36 | 152.2% | WWWWW |
| 2 |
Fremantle
|
10 | 9 | 1 | 36 | 134.9% | WWWWW |
| 3 |
Geelong
|
10 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 123.5% | WWLWW |
| 4 |
Gold Coast
|
10 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 119.9% | WLWLW |
| 5 |
Melbourne
|
10 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 107.6% | WWLWL |
| 6 |
Hawthorn
|
10 | 6 | 3-1 | 26 | 110.2% | LLDWW |
| 7 |
Brisbane
|
10 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 116.6% | LWWWL |
| 8 |
Adelaide
|
10 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 109.7% | WLLWL |
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Fixtures & Odds
21-24 May 2026
Port Adelaide
GWS2026 Premiership Odds
Top contenders - updated 29 April 2026.
Round 10 Scorecard
Round 10 was a high-margin round. Adelaide hammered North by 68 at Adelaide Oval. Fremantle put 43 on Essendon at Marvel. Geelong belted Brisbane by 41 at the Gabba. The Saints rolled Richmond by 36, and Melbourne dismantled Hawthorn by 39 at the MCG. Sydney got the close one over Collingwood by 6 at the SCG. Adelaide -18.5 (21.2% edge) cashed comfortably, the St Kilda/Richmond Under (26.1% edge) cashed at 109-73=182 just over the line. Sydney/Collingwood Under 180.5 missed by 24.