What we saw in R22-R23

Round 22 was a scoring anomaly. Only two matches went over 200 points combined - Melbourne v Fremantle (222) and Sydney v Port (237, the Swans piling on 167 in their biggest ever score against Port Adelaide). Brisbane belted Hawthorn 125-58 at the Gabba. Geelong belted Essendon 117-50. Adelaide won a 63-54 arm-wrestle at Adelaide Oval. Gold Coast ended a 10-match losing streak by 2 points on a contentious late Humphrey goal upheld by the ARC. Carlton smashed St Kilda by 44 - both Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mason Wood copped season-ending injuries.

Round 23 delivered two draws for the first time in a home-and-away round since 1977: Hawthorn 92-92 Collingwood at the MCG, and Bulldogs 82-82 Carlton at Marvel. Fremantle beat Adelaide by 24 at Optus (crowd 55,010 - biggest ever between the two clubs) to lock the minor premiership and knock the Crows out of the top-4. Melbourne demolished Port 132-56 at Adelaide Oval. Sydney rolled Essendon 112-76 at the MCG (Gulden 47 career-best disposals, Curnow 4 goals) to lock 2nd and two home finals. Nick Daicos is now unbackable Brownlow favourite at $1.01.

Round 24 Betting Trends

Nine games, no byes, last home-and-away round. Model rebounds to Overs-heavy again: five Overs in the top edges. Collingwood vs Brisbane Over 181.5 at the MCG Friday night is the standout at 25.9% (model 201.9). Sydney vs North Melbourne Over 189.5 at the SCG second at 22.3% - Swans are kicking freely with nothing to prove. West Coast +46.5 vs Hawthorn is the biggest spread edge at 13.7% (Eagles are still bad but Hawks come off two draws). Melbourne vs Bulldogs Over 182.5 fourth at 12.5%. Essendon/Port Under 176.5 is the only Under of the round at 10.5%. Adelaide -25.5 vs GWS - wait, market has GWS favoured by 25.5 at Adelaide Oval, which is jarring given Crows are 7th and Giants 12th; the model backs Crows +16.6, a 10% edge.