Round 3 Tips

Round 2 Wrap-Up

If Round 1 was about early-season chaos and shaky first impressions, Round 2 started separating the contenders from the pretenders — and the Gold Coast Suns are looking every bit a genuine top-four threat. Ben King was absolutely devastating against Richmond, slotting 7 goals from just 8 kicks in what's becoming a record-setting start to a season. That's now 16 goals from 18 kicks through two rounds. Richmond simply had no answer, and King's efficiency is approaching generational territory. It's early, but he's the Coleman Medal favourite by a country mile.

The Western Bulldogs are officially 3-0 after coming from behind to beat Adelaide in a thriller. The Dogs trailed at three-quarter time but turned the last quarter into an exhibition, showing the kind of composure that had been missing in recent September campaigns. If they can maintain this form when injuries inevitably bite, they'll be right in the mix come September. Adelaide, for their part, will be frustrated — they had the game on their terms before letting it slip.

Hawthorn's win over Sydney was a tactical masterclass. The Hawks' defensive structure suffocated the Swans in the second half, with Sam Barrass completely shutting down Charlie Curnow after a productive first two quarters. It was the kind of defensive adjustment that screams coaching excellence. Sydney's inability to adapt when a key forward gets bottled up remains a legitimate concern if they want to challenge for the flag.

St Kilda's upset of GWS was the most eyebrow-raising result of the weekend. Callum Wilkie was everywhere with 11 intercepts — the kind of defensive reading of play that turns close games into comfortable ones. The Saints are still unlikely to feature in September, but they're more competitive than most gave them credit for pre-season, and a result like this will do wonders for confidence heading into Round 3.

Fremantle rebounded emphatically after a shaky Round 1, putting Melbourne to the sword with 100+ on the board. Josh Treacy was the standout, taking 10 marks (4 contested) and looking like one of the competition's most dangerous forwards when he's on. Melbourne can take some consolation from Max Gawn's continued elite form — 20+ disposals, 20+ hitouts — but the Demons badly need to sort out their defensive structure. They've now conceded 100+ in consecutive weeks, and that's not going to cut it.

Port Adelaide's demolition of Essendon was perhaps the most comprehensive performance of the round and a huge statement win under new coach Josh Carr. The Power were dominant from the first bounce to the final siren, controlling the contested ball count and converting with clinical efficiency. If Essendon are genuinely being priced as favourites in some markets this week, the bookmakers haven't been watching the tape.

West Coast's win over North Melbourne was a reality check for the Kangaroos, whose hot start has now come crashing back to earth. Jack Graham was a monster for the Eagles, carrying the midfield on his back. For North, it's a reminder that rebuilding teams often flatter to deceive in the early rounds before the gaps in their list become apparent. Brisbane, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of 2026 — a concerning start for the defending premiers that has punters starting to question just how long the hangover lasts.

What to Watch in Round 3

Welcome to the Overs Round. Our model projects 6 of 7 games to go over the market total — the strongest lean toward overs we've seen all season. If you're looking for a theme bet, take every over in a multi and let it ride.

• Geelong vs Adelaide is the play of the round. A 34.4% edge on overs is enormous — the kind of discrepancy that doesn't last long once the market catches up. The Cats are averaging 360.6 disposals per game and firing at 33 shots at goal. This game should be high-scoring from the opening bounce.
• Brisbane desperately need a win vs St Kilda. At what point do we stop backing the defending premiers? The Lions are 0-2 and facing a Saints team riding high on confidence after the GWS upset. Our model still expects Brisbane to cover -13.5, but the eye test says this could be closer than the numbers suggest.
• Essendon +12.5 is the market's biggest blind spot. Our model doesn't just think the Bombers will cover — it picks them to win outright by 10.7 points. The market has clearly been burned by Port's demolition last week, but North Melbourne is a vastly different opponent. Harry Sheezel's disposal line of 32.5 is wildly mispriced when our model has him at 44.5.
• Port Adelaide should continue the demolition. Model margin of 38.3 against the Eagles, and Port are 3-0 in recent H2H with an average victory margin of 38.7 points. The market line of -28.5 looks generous — this could be another 60-point blowout if West Coast can't match Port's contested ball dominance.
• Carlton vs Melbourne shapes as the tightest game. Both teams need a win for different reasons — Carlton to prove they belong in the top eight conversation, Melbourne to stop the rot. The overs play (170.5) is driven by Carlton's clearance dominance (+5.8) clashing with Melbourne's disposal advantage (+23.2), which should produce a possession-heavy contest with plenty of scoring opportunities.