Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
GMHBA Stadium
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Geelong vs Sydney, Round 11 2026
Geelong carry a 3-game winning streak into GMHBA Stadium. Model total 201.2 vs market 189.5. Over 189.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 189.5. Our model puts it at 201.2, a 11.7-point gap. That is a 15.6% edge on the Over 189.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Geelong Cats
Team news not yet available.
Sydney Swans
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Geelong
Sydney hold a Disposals advantage: 396.8 vs 386.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Geelong
Sydney
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Sydney Swans | 68 - 111 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | O |
| 2024 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 112 - 82 | Geelong Cats | Sydney | W | O |
| 2023 | R16 | Sydney Swans | 54 - 54 | Geelong Cats | Draw | W | U |
| 2023 | R6 | Geelong Cats | 130 - 37 | Sydney Swans | Geelong | W | U |
Geelong Cats 2-1 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 68 - 111 at Sydney in R23 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Geelong are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 114.0 scored and 76.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 386.6. Their home record 6-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Sydney are riding a 7-game winning streak. Averaging 110.0 scored and 82.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 65. Their away record 3-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | Geelong Cats | U26.5 | 23.1 | 28.2 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Nick Blakey | Sydney Swans | U25.5 | 22.5 | 30.0 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Tom Atkins | Geelong Cats | O18.5 | 20.3 | 17.6 | OVER +1.8 |
| Callum Mills | Sydney Swans | U23.5 | 21.7 | 22.6 | UNDER -1.8 |
| Angus Sheldrick | Sydney Swans | U20.5 | 18.8 | 19.0 | UNDER -1.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 189.5 | 189.5 | $1.88 | 15.6% edge | Strong | Model total 201.2 vs market 189.5. Gap: 11.7 points. |
| Spread | Sydney Swans +10.5 | 10.5 | $1.90 | 10.5% edge | Strong | Model has Geelong Cats winning by 1.1. Market line: 10.5. Edge: 10.5%. |
| Prop | Max Holmes Under 26.5 | 26.5 | N/A | 3.4% edge | None | Model has Max Holmes at 23.1 vs line 26.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Geelong vs Sydney
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Other Round 11 Tips
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