Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons
Marvel Stadium
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Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne, Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs 2-2 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Western Bulldogs winning. Model total 207.6 vs market 189.5. Over 189.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 189.5. Our model puts it at 207.6, a 18.2-point gap. That is a 23.4% edge on the Over 189.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Western Bulldogs
Team news not yet available.
Melbourne Demons
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs hold a Disposals advantage: 357.2 vs 357.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Melbourne Demons | 99 - 105 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R21 | Western Bulldogs | 110 - 59 | Melbourne Demons | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R1 | Melbourne Demons | 109 - 64 | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | W | O |
| 2023 | R1 | Melbourne Demons | 115 - 65 | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | W | O |
Western Bulldogs 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Western Bulldogs win 99 - 105 at Melbourne in R22 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: L W L L L. Western Bulldogs are in mixed recent form. Averaging 70.8 scored and 103.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 357.2. Their home record 2-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W W. Melbourne are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 112.6 scored and 90.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 57.6. Their away record 2-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | Melbourne Demons | U30.5 | 24.5 | 31.8 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Ed Langdon | Melbourne Demons | U20.5 | 15.9 | 24.4 | UNDER -4.6 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | O26.5 | 31.0 | 26.0 | OVER +4.5 |
| Joel Freijah | Western Bulldogs | U19.5 | 15.1 | 19.0 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Matthew Kennedy | Western Bulldogs | U24.5 | 20.1 | 21.6 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne Demons | U22.5 | 18.8 | 20.0 | UNDER -3.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 189.5 | 189.5 | $1.88 | 23.4% edge | Strong | Model total 207.7 vs market 189.5. Gap: 18.2 points. |
| Spread | Western Bulldogs +6.5 | 6.5 | $1.90 | 13.5% edge | Strong | Model has Western Bulldogs winning by 5.6. Market line: 6.5. Edge: 13.5%. |
| Prop | Clayton Oliver Under 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 6.0% edge | None | Model has Clayton Oliver at 24.5 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
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Other Round 11 Tips
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