Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows
UTAS Stadium
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Hawthorn vs Adelaide, Round 11 2026
Adelaide arrive on a 3-game winning run. Model total 192.6 vs market 158.5. Over 158.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 158.5. Our model puts it at 192.6, a 34.1-point gap. That is a 37.9% edge on the Over 158.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Hawthorn Hawks
Team news not yet available.
Adelaide Crows
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Hawthorn
Hawthorn hold a Disposals advantage: 390.4 vs 366.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Hawthorn
Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R21 | Adelaide Crows | 101 - 87 | Hawthorn Hawks | Adelaide | W | O |
| 2025 | R14 | Hawthorn Hawks | 47 - 44 | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn | L | U |
| 2024 | R20 | Adelaide Crows | 58 - 124 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | O |
| 2024 | R12 | Hawthorn Hawks | 107 - 80 | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn | W | O |
| 2023 | R6 | Hawthorn Hawks | 76 - 79 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | W | U |
Hawthorn Hawks 3-2 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 101 - 87 at Adelaide in R21 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: L L D W W. Hawthorn are on two straight losses. Averaging 89.6 scored and 90.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 390.4. Their home record 5-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Adelaide are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 97.0 scored and 86.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.2. Their away record 2-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Battle | Hawthorn Hawks | U21.5 | 17.4 | 23.6 | UNDER -4.1 |
| Connor MacDonald | Hawthorn Hawks | U20.5 | 17.6 | 19.6 | UNDER -2.9 |
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U23.5 | 20.8 | 26.0 | UNDER -2.7 |
| Dylan Moore | Hawthorn Hawks | O18.5 | 21.0 | 20.0 | OVER +2.5 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | U22.5 | 20.5 | 22.4 | UNDER -2.0 |
| Rory Laird | Adelaide Crows | U23.5 | 21.8 | 24.6 | UNDER -1.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 158.5 | 158.5 | $1.88 | 37.9% edge | Strong | Model total 192.6 vs market 158.5. Gap: 34.1 points. |
| Prop | Josh Battle Under 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 4.1% edge | None | Model has Josh Battle at 17.4 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Hawthorn vs Adelaide
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Other Round 11 Tips
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