Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Lions
ENGIE Stadium
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GWS vs Brisbane, Round 11 2026
Greater Western Sydney Giants 3-1 in last 4. At ENGIE Stadium, the model sees Brisbane winning. Model total 197.3 vs market 188.5. Over 188.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 188.5. Our model puts it at 197.3, a 8.9-point gap. That is a 11.7% edge on the Over 188.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Team news not yet available.
Brisbane Lions
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
GWS
GWS hold a Tackles advantage: 61.8 vs 43.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
GWS
Brisbane
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | Brisbane Lions | 96 - 107 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | GWS | L | O |
| 2024 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 64 - 82 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | GWS | L | U |
| 2024 | R7 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 113 - 59 | Brisbane Lions | GWS | W | O |
| 2023 | R6 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 87 - 108 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | O |
Greater Western Sydney Giants 3-1 in last 4. The most recent clash saw GWS win 96 - 107 at Brisbane in R14 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Analysis
Last five: L W L W L. GWS are in mixed recent form. Averaging 81.6 scored and 93.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 375.6. Their home record 4-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Brisbane are in mixed recent form. Averaging 109.6 scored and 92.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 58.4. Their away record 3-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U20.5 | 16.1 | 21.0 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Will Ashcroft | Brisbane Lions | U27.5 | 23.9 | 27.4 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | O29.5 | 33.0 | 32.2 | OVER +3.5 |
| Lachlan Ash | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U28.5 | 25.7 | 29.0 | UNDER -2.8 |
| Finn Callaghan | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U28.5 | 25.8 | 24.8 | UNDER -2.7 |
| Josh Dunkley | Brisbane Lions | O21.5 | 23.9 | 20.4 | OVER +2.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 188.5 | 188.5 | $1.88 | 11.7% edge | Strong | Model total 197.4 vs market 188.5. Gap: 8.9 points. |
| Prop | Connor Idun Under 20.5 | 20.5 | N/A | 4.4% edge | None | Model has Connor Idun at 16.1 vs line 20.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on GWS vs Brisbane
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Other Round 11 Tips
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