North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns
Marvel Stadium
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North Melbourne vs Gold Coast, Round 11 2026
Gold Coast arrive on a 3-game winning run. Model total 201.9 vs market 182.5. Over 182.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 182.5. Our model puts it at 201.9, a 19.4-point gap. That is a 24.8% edge on the Over 182.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Team news not yet available.
Gold Coast Suns
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
North Melbourne
Gold Coast hold a Disposals advantage: 377.4 vs 381.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R5 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 89 - 141 | Gold Coast Suns | Gold Coast | L | O |
| 2024 | R17 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 87 - 83 | Gold Coast Suns | North Melbourne | W | U |
| 2024 | R9 | Gold Coast Suns | 120 - 52 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Gold Coast | W | O |
| 2023 | R24 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 132 - 97 | Gold Coast Suns | North Melbourne | W | O |
| 2023 | R6 | Gold Coast Suns | 97 - 54 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Gold Coast | W | U |
North Melbourne Kangaroos 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Gold Coast win 89 - 141 at North Melbourne in R5 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L W. North Melbourne are in the middle of a 4-game losing run. Averaging 95.2 scored and 106.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 381.8. Their home record 3-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Gold Coast are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 90.4 scored and 83.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 57.6. Their away record 1-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rioli | Gold Coast Suns | U20.5 | 15.0 | 23.6 | UNDER -5.5 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O23.5 | 27.9 | 24.2 | OVER +4.4 |
| Mac Andrew | Gold Coast Suns | U19.5 | 15.2 | 19.8 | UNDER -4.3 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U19.5 | 16.1 | 20.4 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Dylan Stephens | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U18.5 | 15.5 | 19.4 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Luke Parker | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U25.5 | 24.1 | 26.2 | UNDER -1.4 |
Over Signal: Colby McKercher (North Melbourne Kangaroos) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne Kangaroos) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne Kangaroos) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 182.5 | 182.5 | $1.88 | 24.8% edge | Strong | Model total 201.9 vs market 182.5. Gap: 19.4 points. |
| Spread | Gold Coast Suns -10.5 | -10.5 | $1.90 | 9.7% edge | Strong | Model has Gold Coast Suns winning by 19.1. Market line: 10.5. Edge: 9.7%. |
| Prop | Colby McKercher Over 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 7.4% edge | Strong | Model has Colby McKercher at 29.9 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on North Melbourne vs Gold Coast
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Other Round 11 Tips
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