Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues
Adelaide Oval
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Port Adelaide vs Carlton, Round 11 2026
Port Adelaide Power 2-3 in last 5. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Port Adelaide winning. Model total 174.7 vs market 169.5. Port Adelaide Power -9.0 is our top play.
Market has Port Adelaide by 9.0. Model has Port Adelaide by 17.5. That 8.5-point gap gives Port Adelaide a 9.6% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Port Adelaide Power
Team news not yet available.
Carlton Blues
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Port Adelaide
Carlton hold a Disposals advantage: 380 vs 360.2 per game.
Last 5 Results
Port Adelaide
Carlton
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Carlton Blues | 118 - 64 | Port Adelaide Power | Carlton | W | O |
| 2025 | R16 | Port Adelaide Power | 110 - 60 | Carlton Blues | Port Adelaide | W | O |
| 2024 | R20 | Carlton Blues | 65 - 79 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
| 2024 | R12 | Port Adelaide Power | 71 - 107 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | O |
| 2023 | R18 | Carlton Blues | 122 - 72 | Port Adelaide Power | Carlton | W | O |
Port Adelaide Power 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Carlton win 118 - 64 at Carlton in R23 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W L. Port Adelaide are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 80.2 scored and 80.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 360.2. Their home record 2-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L L. Carlton are in mixed recent form. Averaging 80.8 scored and 92.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.2. Their away record 0-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Burgoyne | Port Adelaide Power | U21.5 | 16.3 | 21.2 | UNDER -5.2 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | Port Adelaide Power | U21.5 | 16.4 | 23.4 | UNDER -5.1 |
| Zak Butters | Port Adelaide Power | U29.5 | 25.9 | 32.0 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U27.5 | 25.1 | 27.6 | UNDER -2.4 |
| Patrick Cripps | Carlton Blues | O25.5 | 27.3 | 26.2 | OVER +1.8 |
| Adam Cerra | Carlton Blues | O20.5 | 21.4 | 21.6 | OVER +0.9 |
Over Signal: George Hewett (Carlton Blues) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Port Adelaide Power -9.0 | -9.0 | $1.90 | 9.6% edge | Strong | Model has Port Adelaide Power winning by 17.5. Market line: 9.0. Edge: 9.6%. |
| Prop | George Hewett Over 20.5 | 20.5 | N/A | 8.9% edge | Strong | Model has George Hewett at 29.4 vs line 20.5. (price not available from market) |
| Total | Over 169.5 | 169.5 | $1.88 | 7.1% edge | Moderate | Model total 174.7 vs market 169.5. Gap: 5.2 points. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Port Adelaide vs Carlton
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Other Round 11 Tips
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