Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers
MCG
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Richmond vs Essendon, Round 11 2026
Richmond Tigers 1-3 in last 4. At the MCG, the model sees Essendon winning. Model total 193.0 vs market 173.5. Over 173.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 173.5. Our model puts it at 193.0, a 19.5-point gap. That is a 24.9% edge on the Over 173.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 11
Richmond Tigers
Team news not yet available.
Essendon Bombers
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Richmond
Essendon hold a Disposals advantage: 361.8 vs 328.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Richmond
Essendon
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Richmond Tigers | 46 - 37 | Essendon Bombers | Richmond | W | U |
| 2025 | R11 | Essendon Bombers | 81 - 58 | Richmond Tigers | Essendon | L | U |
| 2024 | R11 | Richmond Tigers | 74 - 86 | Essendon Bombers | Essendon | W | U |
| 2023 | R10 | Essendon Bombers | 71 - 70 | Richmond Tigers | Essendon | W | U |
Richmond Tigers 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Richmond win 46 - 37 at Richmond in R18 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L L W L L. Richmond are on two straight losses. Averaging 72.0 scored and 110.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 328.6. Their home record 0-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Essendon are in the middle of a 5-game losing run. Averaging 79.8 scored and 121.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 50. Their away record 0-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | U29.5 | 24.6 | 28.2 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Will Setterfield | Essendon Bombers | O18.5 | 21.2 | 20.8 | OVER +2.7 |
| Nick Vlastuin | Richmond Tigers | O18.5 | 20.9 | 17.8 | OVER +2.4 |
| Tim Taranto | Richmond Tigers | U25.5 | 23.1 | 19.4 | UNDER -2.4 |
| Sam Durham | Essendon Bombers | U22.5 | 20.2 | 21.0 | UNDER -2.3 |
| Jack Ross | Richmond Tigers | U23.5 | 22.1 | 26.2 | UNDER -1.4 |
Over Signal: Mason Redman (Essendon Bombers) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Jacob Hopper (Richmond Tigers) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Jye Caldwell (Essendon Bombers) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Andrew McGrath (Essendon Bombers) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 173.5 | 173.5 | $1.88 | 24.9% edge | Strong | Model total 193.0 vs market 173.5. Gap: 19.5 points. |
| Prop | Mason Redman Over 19.5 | 19.5 | N/A | 8.4% edge | Strong | Model has Mason Redman at 27.9 vs line 19.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Richmond vs Essendon
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Other Round 11 Tips
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