Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power
Gabba
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Brisbane vs Port Adelaide, Round 15 2026
Brisbane carry a 6-game winning streak into the Gabba. Model has Brisbane by 27.8. Port Adelaide Power +38.5 is our top play.
Market has Brisbane by 38.5. Model has Brisbane by 27.8. That 10.7-point gap gives Port Adelaide a 12.0% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Brisbane Lions
Oscar Allen pressing for AFL recall while Reville and Zorko expected back. Oscar Allen, Bruce Reville, Dayne Zorko in.
Port Adelaide Power
Horne-Francis returns from suspension and Georgiades likely back. Jason Horne-Francis, Mitch Georgiades in. Joe Richards out.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Brisbane
Brisbane hold a Disposals advantage: 386.8 vs 322.2 per game.
Last 5 Results
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 3 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 120 - 92 | Port Adelaide Power | Brisbane | W | O |
| 2024 | R15 | Port Adelaide Power | 73 - 152 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | O |
| 2023 | R1 | Port Adelaide Power | 126 - 72 | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide | W | O |
Brisbane Lions 2-1 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Brisbane win 120 - 92 at Brisbane in R17 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Brisbane are riding a 6-game winning streak. Averaging 121.2 scored and 78.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 386.8. Their home record 5-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W L. Port Adelaide are on two straight losses. Averaging 74.0 scored and 78.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.4. Their away record 2-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | Brisbane Lions | U30.5 | 24.6 | 33.0 | UNDER -5.9 |
| Jase Burgoyne | Port Adelaide Power | U21.5 | 15.8 | 20.0 | UNDER -5.7 |
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | O30.5 | 34.0 | 31.0 | OVER +3.5 |
| Josh Dunkley | Brisbane Lions | O21.5 | 24.6 | 21.8 | OVER +3.1 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Port Adelaide Power +38.5 | 38.5 | $1.90 | 12.0% edge | Strong | Model has Brisbane Lions winning by 27.8. Market line: 38.5. Edge: 12.0%. |
| Prop | Will Ashcroft Under 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 5.9% edge | None | Model has Will Ashcroft at 24.6 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Brisbane vs Port Adelaide
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Other Round 15 Tips
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