North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium
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North Melbourne vs St Kilda, Round 15 2026
North Melbourne Kangaroos 0-4 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees St Kilda winning. Model total 185.2 vs market 175.5. Over 175.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 175.5. Our model puts it at 185.2, a 9.8-point gap. That is a 13.2% edge on the Over 175.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Blamires available again while Duursma facing shoulder surgery. Tom Blamires in. Zane Duursma out.
St Kilda Saints
King and De Koning both have chance to return this week. Max King, Tom De Koning in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
North Melbourne
St Kilda hold a Disposals advantage: 418.2 vs 394.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R21 | St Kilda Saints | 78 - 69 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | St Kilda | L | U |
| 2024 | R8 | St Kilda Saints | 103 - 65 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | St Kilda | W | U |
| 2023 | R19 | St Kilda Saints | 69 - 61 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | St Kilda | L | U |
| 2023 | R8 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 34 - 64 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | W | U |
North Melbourne Kangaroos 0-4 in last 4. The most recent clash saw St Kilda win 78 - 69 at St Kilda in R21 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W W. North Melbourne are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 73.0 scored and 73.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 394.6. Their home record 6-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: L W W L W. St Kilda are in mixed recent form. Averaging 87.2 scored and 79.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.4. Their away record 4-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U26.5 | 24.1 | 27.0 | UNDER -2.4 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | North Melbourne Kangaroos | O24.5 | 26.1 | 24.8 | OVER +1.6 |
| Caleb Daniel | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U25.5 | 24.1 | 28.0 | UNDER -1.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 175.5 | 175.5 | $1.88 | 13.2% edge | Strong | Model total 185.3 vs market 175.5. Gap: 9.8 points. |
| Prop | Luke Parker Under 26.5 | 26.5 | N/A | 2.4% edge | None | Model has Luke Parker at 24.1 vs line 26.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on North Melbourne vs St Kilda
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Other Round 15 Tips
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