Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers
MCG
We may earn commission on sign-ups via this link. Affiliate disclosure
Hawthorn vs Essendon, Round 15 2026
Hawthorn Hawks 2-2 in last 4. At the MCG, the model sees Hawthorn winning. Model total 179.4 vs market 170.5. Over 170.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 170.5. Our model puts it at 179.4, a 8.9-point gap. That is a 12.1% edge on the Over 170.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Hawthorn Hawks
Will Day returns while Ginnivan expected to play despite back issue. Will Day in. Karl Amon out.
Essendon Bombers
Xavier Duursma, Kyle Langford out. Injury concerns: Duursma season, Edwards 1 week. Nate Caddy, Nik Cox expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Hawthorn
Essendon hold a Disposals advantage: 342 vs 380.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Hawthorn
Essendon
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Essendon Bombers | 83 - 145 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | O |
| 2025 | R1 | Hawthorn Hawks | 111 - 85 | Essendon Bombers | Hawthorn | W | O |
| 2024 | R1 | Essendon Bombers | 107 - 83 | Hawthorn Hawks | Essendon | W | O |
| 2023 | R1 | Hawthorn Hawks | 65 - 124 | Essendon Bombers | Essendon | L | O |
Hawthorn Hawks 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Hawthorn win 83 - 145 at Essendon in R1 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W W. Hawthorn are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 104.8 scored and 79.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 380.6. Their home record 7-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L L. Essendon are in mixed recent form. Averaging 58.2 scored and 100.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 41.2. Their away record 0-9 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor MacDonald | Hawthorn Hawks | U23.5 | 17.6 | 25.0 | UNDER -5.9 |
| Jarman Impey | Hawthorn Hawks | U26.5 | 22.0 | 22.6 | UNDER -4.5 |
| James Sicily | Hawthorn Hawks | U22.5 | 19.1 | 19.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Sam Durham | Essendon Bombers | U23.5 | 20.2 | 23.8 | UNDER -3.3 |
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | U27.5 | 24.6 | 25.6 | UNDER -2.9 |
| Archie Roberts | Essendon Bombers | U27.5 | 26.1 | 23.0 | UNDER -1.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 170.5 | 170.5 | $1.88 | 12.1% edge | Strong | Model total 179.4 vs market 170.5. Gap: 8.9 points. |
| Spread | Hawthorn Hawks -53.5 | -53.5 | $1.90 | 7.4% edge | Moderate | Model has Hawthorn Hawks winning by 60.0. Market line: 53.5. Edge: 7.4%. |
| Prop | Connor MacDonald Under 23.5 | 23.5 | N/A | 5.9% edge | None | Model has Connor MacDonald at 17.6 vs line 23.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Hawthorn vs Essendon
Compare the top AFL betting sites. New member free bet offers available - T&Cs apply.
New members only. Free bet offers subject to T&Cs. You must be 18+ to open a betting account. Pay by debit card where available. In-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia - all bets must be placed pre-game or via telephone.
Other Round 15 Tips
vs
vs
vs
vs
vs
vs
vs
vs
AFL Betting Guides
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be for entertainment only. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Set a budget and stick to it. If gambling is causing you problems, contact the National Gambling Helpline: 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. You must be 18 or over to place bets in Australia. In-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia.