Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns
Marvel Stadium
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Carlton vs Gold Coast, Round 15 2026
Carlton Blues 3-1 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Carlton winning. Model total 178.3 vs market 171.0. Over 171.0 is our top play.
The market has the total at 171.0. Our model puts it at 178.3, a 7.3-point gap. That is a 9.9% edge on the Over 171.0. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Carlton Blues
Cerra expected to play while McKay and Pittonet face fitness tests. Adam Cerra, Lewis Young in.
Gold Coast Suns
Davies and Ballard among options as Suns search for changes. Alex Davies, Charlie Ballard in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Carlton
Carlton hold a Disposals advantage: 391.8 vs 381 per game.
Last 5 Results
Carlton
Gold Coast
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Carlton Blues | 74 - 93 | Gold Coast Suns | Gold Coast | W | U |
| 2024 | R11 | Carlton Blues | 102 - 73 | Gold Coast Suns | Carlton | W | U |
| 2023 | R23 | Gold Coast Suns | 87 - 91 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | W | O |
| 2023 | R14 | Carlton Blues | 120 - 61 | Gold Coast Suns | Carlton | W | O |
Carlton Blues 3-1 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Gold Coast win 74 - 93 at Carlton in R22 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W W. Carlton are on two straight losses. Averaging 77.4 scored and 78.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 391.8. Their home record 4-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Gold Coast are in the middle of a 8-game losing run. Averaging 68.2 scored and 100.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 49.8. Their away record 1-7 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touk Miller | Gold Coast Suns | U24.5 | 20.3 | 25.8 | UNDER -4.2 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U29.5 | 25.8 | 29.8 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O25.5 | 27.9 | 24.6 | OVER +2.4 |
| Patrick Cripps | Carlton Blues | O27.5 | 28.2 | 28.0 | OVER +0.7 |
| Noah Anderson | Gold Coast Suns | U28.5 | 27.8 | 28.8 | UNDER -0.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 171.0 | 171.0 | $1.88 | 9.9% edge | Strong | Model total 178.3 vs market 171.0. Gap: 7.3 points. |
| Prop | Touk Miller Under 24.5 | 24.5 | N/A | 4.2% edge | None | Model has Touk Miller at 20.3 vs line 24.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Carlton vs Gold Coast
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Other Round 15 Tips
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