VS
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons
Model Predicted Score — Carlton by 8.2
Key Stats Dashboard
Carlton (green) vs Melbourne (gold)
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches: Carlton 2-3 · Avg margin: -4.2
| Season | Round | Score | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | W32 | +32 | W |
| 2024 | R22 | L43 | -43 | L |
| 2024 | R4 | L26 | -26 | L |
| 2023 | R23 | W20 | +20 | W |
| 2023 | R8 | L24 | -24 | L |
Last 5 Results
Carlton
Melbourne
Carlton have been inconsistent in recent form, averaging 85.6 points scored and 91.0 conceded (-5.4 margin). Melbourne come in with inconsistent form, averaging 81.4 scored and 94.6 conceded (-13.2 margin).
Key Matchup Factors
Top statistical advantages from our model
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers
| Player | Team | Line | Model | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | Melbourne | U21.5 | 20.3 | UNDER -1.2 |
H2H Standout Performers
Prediction & Best Bet
This is a genuine rivalry clash with plenty of value on offer. The market has Carlton as just 2.5-point favourites, but our model sees an 8.2-point margin — that's a 12.2% edge on the line. The total is where the real value sits: our model predicts 186.2 points against a market line of 170.5, giving us a massive 20.1% edge with 70.2% probability. Melbourne's disposal dominance (383.4 per game) will keep them competitive, but Carlton's clearance superiority (+5.8) should give them the edge in contested ball. Charlie Curnow is a fixture star with 7 goals across two meetings, and Sam Walsh consistently racks up 30+ disposals. Back Carlton on the line and the total over.
Where to Bet on Carlton vs Melbourne
Our recommended bookmakers for this match.