VS
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions
Model Predicted Score — Brisbane by 22.2
Key Stats Dashboard
St Kilda (green) vs Brisbane (gold)
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches: Brisbane 5-0 · Avg margin: -38.0
| Season | Round | Score | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R7 | L45 | -45 | L |
| 2024 | R21 | L85 | -85 | L |
| 2024 | R14 | L20 | -20 | L |
| 2023 | R24 | L12 | -12 | L |
| 2023 | R15 | L28 | -28 | L |
Last 5 Results
St Kilda
Brisbane
St Kilda have been inconsistent in recent form, averaging 84.2 points scored and 90.2 conceded (-6.0 margin). Brisbane come in with inconsistent form, averaging 89.2 scored and 86.0 conceded (+3.2 margin).
Key Matchup Factors
Top statistical advantages from our model
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers
| Player | Team | Line | Model | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane | O30.5 | 35.1 | OVER +4.6 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | St Kilda | U18.5 | 9.4 | UNDER -9.1 |
Neale averages 31.3 disposals against St Kilda across 4 meetings — absolute banker.
H2H Standout Performers
Prediction & Best Bet
Brisbane have won the last five meetings against St Kilda by an average margin of 38 points — this is complete domination. The market has Brisbane -13.5, but our model sees a 22.2-point win, giving us a 10% edge on the line. Brisbane's inside-50 entries (57.6 per game) will overwhelm St Kilda's defensive structure. Lachie Neale is the standout player prop — he averages 31+ disposals against the Saints and our model has him at 35.1, well over the 30.5 line. Eric Hipwood has bagged 4 goals in two of the last three meetings. Back Brisbane on the line with high confidence.
Where to Bet on St Kilda vs Brisbane
Our recommended bookmakers for this match.