VS
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Model Predicted Score — Essendon by 10.7
Key Stats Dashboard
Essendon (green) vs North Melbourne (gold)
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches: Essendon 4-0 · Avg margin: +14.5
| Season | Round | Score | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R8 | W3 | +3 | W |
| 2024 | R10 | W40 | +40 | W |
| 2023 | R22 | W9 | +9 | W |
| 2023 | R12 | W6 | +6 | W |
Last 5 Results
Essendon
North Melbourne
Essendon have been poor in recent form, averaging 68.4 points scored and 119.6 conceded (-51.2 margin). North Melbourne come in with inconsistent form, averaging 104.2 scored and 102.2 conceded (+2.0 margin).
Key Matchup Factors
Top statistical advantages from our model
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers
| Player | Team | Line | Model | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | O32.5 | 44.5 | OVER +12.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | Essendon | O22.5 | 28.1 | OVER +5.6 |
| Colby McKercher | North Melbourne | O22.5 | 29.9 | OVER +7.4 |
Sheezel has hit 32 disposals in every meeting with Essendon. Our model has him at 44.5 — a massive 12-point edge. This is the best player prop of the round.
H2H Standout Performers
Prediction & Best Bet
This is one of the most mispriced matches of the round. The market has North Melbourne as 12.5-point favourites based on Essendon's horrific recent form (five straight losses by 51.2 points average). But our model, which weighs head-to-head history heavily, has Essendon winning by 10.7. The Bombers have won the last four meetings, and Zach Merrett consistently dominates this fixture. Harry Sheezel O32.5 disposals is a standout prop — he has hit 32 in every meeting and our model has him at 44.5. The over on 182.5 total points (model: 200.7) also presents massive value at 23.2% edge. Back Essendon +12.5 as the primary play.
Where to Bet on Essendon vs North Melbourne
Our recommended bookmakers for this match.