VS
Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows
Model Predicted Score — Geelong by 15.7
Key Stats Dashboard
Geelong (green) vs Adelaide (gold)
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches: Geelong 4-0 · Avg margin: +17.2
| Season | Round | Score | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R5 | 119-100 | +19 | W |
| 2024 | R21 | 90-85 | +5 | W |
| 2024 | R2 | 96-77 | +19 | W |
| 2023 | R8 | 98-72 | +26 | W |
Last 5 Results
Geelong
Adelaide
Geelong have been strong in recent form, averaging 100.4 points scored and 84.4 conceded (+16.0 margin). Adelaide come in with strong form, averaging 88.0 scored and 81.4 conceded (+6.6 margin).
Key Matchup Factors
Top statistical advantages from our model
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers
| Player | Team | Line | Model | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bruhn | Geelong | U23.5 | 18.2 | UNDER -5.3 |
| Josh Rachele | Adelaide | U20.5 | 10.5 | UNDER -10.0 |
| Gryan Miers | Geelong | U24.5 | 22.9 | UNDER -1.6 |
H2H Standout Performers
Prediction & Best Bet
This is the standout bet of Round 3. Our model has the total at 206.1 — a massive 29.6 points above the market line of 176.5, giving us an 84.2% probability of the over hitting. Geelong are scoring machines at GMHBA Stadium, averaging 100.4 points over their last five, while Adelaide concede at a high rate. The Cats dominate Adelaide in every key metric — disposals, shots at goal, and marks inside 50 — and have won the last four meetings with an average margin of 17.2 points. Jeremy Cameron has been lethal in this fixture, bagging 6 goals in R21 2024. Back the over with supreme confidence.
Where to Bet on Geelong vs Adelaide
Our recommended bookmakers for this match.