Collingwood VS GWS

Collingwood Magpies vs GWS Giants

98.8 – 90.4

Model Predicted Score — Collingwood by 8.3

Saturday 11 April 2026 · 4:35pm AEST · MCG · Round 3 AFL 2026
Spread Edge: -3.4% Total Edge: 17.3%
Statistical Comparison

Key Stats Dashboard

Collingwood (green) vs GWS (gold)

68.2
Avg Score (L5)
92.8
80.8
Avg Conceded (L5)
95.2
383.8
Disposals
377.6
69.6
Intercepts
62.2
69.0
Turnovers Forced
62.2
Head-to-Head

Recent Meetings

Last 3 matches: Collingwood 1-2 · Avg margin: -6.3

SeasonRoundScoreMarginResult
2025 R0 52-104 -52 L
2024 R0 82-114 -32 L
2023 R9 120-55 +65 W
Form Guide

Last 5 Results

Collingwood
LWWLL
Avg Scored68.2
Avg Conceded80.8
Avg Margin-12.6
GWS
LLWWW
Avg Scored92.8
Avg Conceded95.2
Avg Margin-2.4

Collingwood have been inconsistent in recent form, averaging 68.2 points scored and 80.8 conceded (-12.6 margin). GWS come in with strong form, averaging 92.8 scored and 95.2 conceded (-2.4 margin).

Matchup Analysis

Key Matchup Factors

Top statistical advantages from our model

Intercepts
Collingwood 69.6 for vs GWS 62.2 against
Collingwood +7.4
Turnovers Forced
Collingwood force 69.0 vs GWS 62.2 against
Collingwood +6.8
Disposals
GWS 377.6 for vs Collingwood 383.8 against
GWS +6.2
Player Markets

Player Props & Watch List

Model disposal leans and standout performers

PlayerTeamLineModelLean
Josh Daicos Collingwood U26.5 24.9 UNDER -1.6
Dan Houston Collingwood U25.5 18.4 UNDER -7.1
Lachlan Ash GWS U29.5 23.1 UNDER -6.4

H2H Standout Performers

Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
41 disposals R9 2023, 34 disposals R0 2024
Josh Kelly (GWS)
36 disposals R0 2025, 32 disposals R0 2024
Callum M. Brown (Collingwood)
5 goals R0 2024
Our Verdict

Prediction & Best Bet

Predicted Score
98.8 – 90.4
Best Bet
Over 176.0 Total Points
STRONG VALUE
Confidence: 78%

GWS have dominated this fixture recently with two heavy pre-season wins, but the home-and-away dynamic is different. Collingwood's intercept game is elite — forcing 69 turnovers per game — which should keep GWS's attacking entries in check. Our model has this at 189.2 total points vs the market line of 176.0, giving us a 17.3% edge on the over. Both teams have been leaking goals: Collingwood conceding 80.8 per game and GWS conceding 95.2. Nick Daicos is the x-factor — he went for 41 disposals when these teams last met in a proper home-and-away game. Back the over.

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