VS
Fremantle Dockers vs Richmond Tigers
Model Predicted Score — Fremantle by 46.5
Key Stats Dashboard
Fremantle (green) vs Richmond (gold)
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches: Fremantle 3-1 · Avg margin: +37.8
| Season | Round | Score | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R5 | W61 | +61 | W |
| 2024 | R17 | W51 | +51 | W |
| 2024 | R8 | W54 | +54 | W |
| 2023 | R13 | L15 | -15 | L |
Last 5 Results
Fremantle
Richmond
Fremantle have been strong in recent form, averaging 93.2 points scored and 92.8 conceded (+0.4 margin). Richmond come in with poor form, averaging 66.8 scored and 99.4 conceded (-32.6 margin).
Key Matchup Factors
Top statistical advantages from our model
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers
| Player | Team | Line | Model | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | Richmond | U21.5 | 20.4 | UNDER -1.1 |
| Jacob Hopper | Richmond | O23.5 | 26.3 | OVER +2.8 |
H2H Standout Performers
Prediction & Best Bet
This is as close to a one-sided fixture as you'll find in the AFL. Fremantle have won three of the last four meetings by an average of 55 points, and Richmond are in dreadful form — losing their last five by an average of 32.6 points. The market has the line spot-on at -46.5, so the value lies in the total. Our model sees 180.6 points (12.1 above the line), driven by Fremantle's attack-first style. Josh Treacy has been extraordinary against Richmond with 15 goals across three games. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong will feast on Richmond's midfield. Take the over on total points.
Where to Bet on Fremantle vs Richmond
Our recommended bookmakers for this match.