Season 2026 is our first live-tracked season. Results will be published here after each round. We believe transparency is the minimum standard for any site that offers betting analysis — if we cannot show our results, we have no right to offer advice.
Round-by-Round Results
| Round | Bets Placed | Win Rate | CLV | Yield | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Pre-launch — no tracked bets | ||||
| Round 2 | Pre-launch — no tracked bets | ||||
| Round 3 | In progress | ||||
| Round 4 | — | ||||
| Round 5 | — | ||||
| Round 6 | — | ||||
Season Totals
What These Metrics Mean
Closing Line Value (CLV)
CLV measures the difference between the price at which a bet was placed and the closing price just before game start. If you back a team at $2.20 and the price closes at $2.00, you achieved positive CLV of approximately 10%. Positive CLV is the strongest indicator of long-term profitability because the closing line is the most efficient price the market produces — it incorporates all available information including late team changes, weather, and sharp money.
Yield
Yield is the profit or loss expressed as a percentage of total amount wagered. A yield of +5% means that for every $100 wagered, the bettor profited $5 on average. Over a full AFL season with consistent unit sizing, a yield above 3–5% is considered strong. Yield is a better measure of edge than win rate because it accounts for the odds at which bets are placed.
ROI (Return on Investment)
ROI is total profit divided by total capital deployed. For flat-stake betting it is identical to yield. For variable-stake betting (where some bets are larger than others), ROI reflects the actual return on the money put at risk. A positive ROI over a statistically significant sample (200+ bets) is strong evidence of a genuine edge.
Win Rate
Win rate is the simplest metric — bets won divided by total bets. However, it is the least useful metric in isolation. A bettor who only backs $1.10 favourites will have a high win rate but may still lose money. A bettor who backs value underdogs at $3.00+ will have a lower win rate but can be highly profitable. Win rate only means something when combined with the average odds at which bets are placed.